Now to posit a scenario for a future Philippine revolution since the country is headed in my opinion on that path. The Philippines has all the ingredients for potential national civil collapse. Now picture this? The Philippines has a lot of poor. In fact between 75 and 90 percent of the population could be classified as poor. Now with rampant overpopulation comes irresponsible procreation. Especially within the poor sector. And thanks to the Catholic Church prohibiting sex without contraception, this has resulted in a lot of abandoned kids. And their numbers are growing rapidly all over the country. Mainly in the capital city Manila.
It is part of our human biology to procreate. Thus, due to the Philippines’ rampant unemployment, an idle population who, when not doing anything, will gladly follow that biological need, aside from regular hobbies. So now in the past 20 years, the street children problem in the Philippines and Manila in particular has only become worse. With entire families sleeping on the streets, crime among these street kids has elevated. Worst, the children’s centers set up by the Dept of Social Welfare which are supposed to take care of the streets kids are shockingly poorly run with beatings, abuse, rape and starvation of street kids being common place.
So the street kids who have to undergo all this abuse, DO NOT become productive citizens. More often than not it traumatizes them and turns them into little monsters. I guess that explains why the nation has an ever-rising crime rate in Manila. While the Philippines as a whole has the highest homicide rate in Southeast Asia. Manila in particular has one of the highest crime rates of any major city in Asia. Kids as young as 12 and 13 are becoming killers who could be bought with a bottle of Tanduay Rum. These kids grow up believing life is cheap and killing for them has become as easy as eating or taking a shit. And the rate of producing streets kids is rapidly rising. So the end-result being millions of future criminals and killers who are worse than the earlier generation counterparts. Doing things which would be unthinkable for criminals in the past.
Guns too are becoming a more widespread problem in the Philippines, and becoming easier for criminals to acquire. And a lot of these street kids, as they grow up are finding their way into the Armed forces and the Police. Hence, they carry their corrupt mentality into these institutions. In fact they are trained by those very same institutions in the use of military weapons, techniques and tactics. So what happens next? Imagine 10 to 20 years from now. The Philippine economy is still stagnating, heading to the bottom. Things remain the same or only gotten worse. Criminals in Manila easily acquire weapons since if you consider future technology such as 3D printing, one might produce a workable firearm.
These street kids have grown up hating the rich and elite. The same people who run the Philippines with complete impunity and believe nothing can challenge their position. A perfect example would be the cities of Brazil. Having recently erupted in violence with gangs armed with assault rifles fighting with the police and have come to rule over large portions of Brazil’s cities. They had to bring in the military to fight these gangs since the police had proven ineffective. These gangs came about as Brazil’s cities were overpopulated as well. They had experienced similar problems as did the Philippines. Hence a lot of street kids, along with an abundance of guns due to smuggling from war zones in and around Brazil. Thus, an abundance of guns, lots of criminal minded street kids, corrupt government, big divide between the rich and poor, and of course the military grade weapons. All equates to crazy street crime.
Brazil, along with other Latin American countries has had a hard time handling this problem. And the Philippines in no exception. The Filipino poor may be ignorant and uneducated but they are not stupid. It takes an articulate mind to organize. And eventually someone will organize these people to stand against the wealthy elite. Revolutions are no longer about ideology anymore. It’s either religious like Iraq and Syria. National vs occupying powers such as Afghanistan. But also criminal like Mexico, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatmala, Brazil, Venezuela and Columbia.
Imagine one day, the Manila street criminals are no longer afraid to fight cops head on and winning. You will probably have crime problem in Manila and the Philippines growing to civil war proportions similar to Mexico. And noting that the Philippines is now an important drug conduit to other parts of Asia — thanks to a corrupt government facilitating smuggling of illicit goods — it’s no wonder the cartels became interested in the Philippines. Same too in the provinces, where many of these kids gravitate to the private armies of the local political families and eventually into the NPA or MNLF. Currently, the Moros factions are fielding a lot of underage fighters themselves.
These are all the ingredients showing the Philippines may collapse into chaotic civil war of proportions similar to Somalia , Liberia and Sierra Leone. A civil war which may produce a confusing bunch of factions fighting amongst each other for various reasons. These factions that started out fighting the central government, could easily break away and become criminal warlords, content with ruling their territories rather than establishing a national government identical to Somalia.
So that is where the Philippines is headed. Mostly due to its shortsighted stupidity and lack of common sense policies within its government, clergy and society. To those who have children now? When you become grand parents do you honestly want to be questioned by your children or grandchildren as to why you didn’t do anything to avert the situation they are in. So I tell all of you, to do something now to avert this kind future.
These are my 2 cents on the Anniversary of the Mendiola massacre Jan 22, 1987. Which was a foretelling on the fucked up state of the Philippines today.
Originally Written in emotional haste By John Debrassey. And polished somewhat by myself.